Festive sales may cross ₹7 lakh crore, but prices are rising too: a playbook for small retailers

Demand looks strong

On 14 October 2026, CAIT secretary general Praveen Khandelwal said consumer sentiment is "very upbeat" and that traders have stocked up. By CAIT's estimate, groceries make up about 12% of festive trade, gold and jewellery 10%, electronics 8%, and consumer durables, readymade garments and gifts 7% each.

But costs are rising faster

Official data released on 12 October shows retail inflation at 5.54% in September, up from 4.83% in August and the highest in nearly two years. Food inflation jumped to 7.74%, led by onions, garlic and ginger. Wholesale inflation rose to 11.39%, which means your purchase costs are likely rising faster than shelf prices. Inflation is now above the RBI's 4% target, which is one reason it raised interest rates this month.

A five-point festive playbook

1. Reprice before the rush. Check your last purchase price on your top 20 items. If cost is up and your price isn't, your margin is gone before the sale starts.
2. Buy what turns. Stock deep on last year's best sellers. Buy new lines in small lots and reorder if they move.
3. Sell bundles, not discounts. A gift pack or combo protects margin better than a flat 20% off, and moves slow stock with fast stock.
4. Keep credit tight. Festive credit to customers is easy to give and slow to collect. Set a limit, write it down and stick to it.
5. Plan for November. Supplier payments, salaries, bonuses and GST all fall due after Diwali. Keep that cash aside before you spend the festive takings.

Selling online too? Large platforms will discount hard. Compete on what they can't match: touch and feel, same-day delivery, and personal service on WhatsApp.

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