US waives the Russian-oil tariff threat: a breather for Indian exporters, not certainty

In short

The US has waived threatened extra tariffs of up to 100% on goods from major buyers of Russian oil, including India, for purchases from 18 October 2026.
The waiver has no end date, but it can be withdrawn at any time. It's a breather, not a deal.
Exporters in textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods benefit most. Use the window to lock in orders and spread your risk.

What happened

A US law passed in September 2026, the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, allowed tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that buy large amounts of Russian oil. India was in the firing line. On 17 October the US issued a waiver under the same law, covering new purchases from 18 October. The US Trade Representative will keep monitoring Russian energy purchases, and the threat can be restored.

India's dependence on Russian oil has been falling: its share of India's oil imports dropped from 51% in July to 44% in August 2026.

What exporters are saying

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the waiver will help employment-heavy sectors, and hopes it leads to "a stable, mutually beneficial trade agreement". The India SME Forum said small exporters need "the confidence to build long-term customer relationships". Trade think tank GTRI warned that because the waiver is reversible, it offers "no lasting certainty".

Why it matters in Tamil Nadu

The sectors named are Tamil Nadu's export base: knitwear in Tiruppur, leather and footwear in Ambur, Ranipet and Vellore, and engineering goods and pumps in Coimbatore. Many of these units sell to the US through buying agents and larger exporters, so even small job-work units feel the effect when US orders slow down.

What to do now

Confirm pending orders. Buyers held back while the threat was live. Follow up now and get orders in writing.
Put tariff clauses in contracts. Agree in advance who bears any new duty if the threat returns.
Diversify buyers. Use this window to build orders from the UK, EU, UAE and other markets where India has, or is negotiating, trade agreements.
Price for risk. Don't cut prices to win US orders. Keep a margin buffer in case duties come back.
Watch your cash cycle. Freight and insurance costs are already higher because of the West Asia conflict. Use export credit and receivables financing, not your overdraft, to bridge gaps.

Need help planning new markets or diversifying your buyers? Book a free discovery call.

Sources

This article is general information, not trade or legal advice.